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Ocean Circulation and Climate
Ben P. KirtmanTim StockdaleRobert Burgman
其他書名
Chapter 24. The Ocean’s Role in Modeling and Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variations
出版Elsevier Inc. Chapters, 2013-10-22
主題Science / Earth Sciences / GeneralScience / Physics / GeophysicsBusiness & Economics / Economics / MicroeconomicsScience / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & ClimatologyScience / Earth Sciences / OceanographyScience / Environmental Science
ISBN01280587309780128058732
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=-UlzDAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
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註釋This chapter summarizes the scientific basis for and the current status of seasonal-to-interannual prediction with particular emphasis on the role of the tropical oceans. The first part of the chapter focuses on oceanic sources of predictability in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Seasonal-to-interannual predictability issues in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are also discussed. Mechanisms that limit predictability, particularly for ENSO, are highlighted. The second part of the chapter describes the forecast quality and procedures in practice today. Finally, the concluding remarks identify some outstanding challenges.