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Announcements in Times of Crisis and the Dynamics of Stock Markets
出版Publications Office of the European Union, 2019
ISBN92760204899789276020486
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=0KgZywEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋In this paper we propose a novel approach in analysing the impact of changes in sovereign credit ratings on stock markets. We study the evolution of a segmented form of the stock market index for several crisis-hit countries, including both European and Asian markets. Such evolution is modelled by a homogeneous Markov chain, where the transition probabilities from one starting level of the index to a new (lower or higher) level in the next period depend on some explanatory variables, namely the country's rating, GDP and interest rate, through a generalised ordered probit model. The credit ratings turn out to be determinant in the dynamics of the stock markets for all three European countries considered - Portugal, Spain and Greece, while not all considered Asian countries show evidence of correlation of market indices with the ratings.