登入選單
返回Google圖書搜尋
Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective
Adrian AlterAlan Xiaochen FengNico Valckx
出版International Monetary Fund, 2018-04-06
主題Business & Economics / Foreign ExchangeBusiness & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Banks & Banking
ISBN14843498659781484349861
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=1LEZEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950–2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors’ overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.