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Estimating the Effects of a Time Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare Leavers

出版	National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=1YocFO9fJJIC&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋Many analysts have argued that the absence of incentives creates a ìwelfare trap.î Once in the system, welfare recipients become increasingly detached from the labour market, and the subsequent erosion of skills and work habits makes it less likely they can leave in the future.1 In the early 1990s the government of Canada funded the evaluation of an earnings subsidy program ó the Self-Sufficiency [...] That said, the exit rates of the program group, broadly speaking, were about 1 to 2.5 percentage points above the rates for the control group in the first 15 months of the experiment, then declined rapidly to the range of about half a point higher over the period from 15 to 48 months after random assignment, and finally were about equal to the rates for the control group in the period after the en [...] This is roughly equal to the program effect on the monthly employment rate, although the fraction of employed people who report the necessary information to construct an hourly wage is typically a little higher for the program group than the control group.18 The dotted line in the figure represents the difference between the program and control groups in the fraction of people who report an hourly [...] If ∆ hit ≥ 0 for all i (which is perhaps reasonable given the full-time hours rules of the SSP program), mt is a weighted average of the wages earned by the people in the program group in month t, with weights proportional to the increase in hours caused by the SSP program.20 In summary, then, under the assumptions that SSP has no effect on wages for people who would have worked in the absence of [...] This reinforces the conclusion from Figure 4 that the extra work effort of the SSP program group was largely at minimum wage jobs.21 The absence of a trend in the average marginal wage relative to the minimum wage is important because it suggests that the SSP program group experienced little or no relative gain in potential wages over the course of the experiment.