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Adjustment Policies in Developing Countries, 1979-1983
註釋Analysis of the policies applied by developing countries in response to the external shocks of the 1979-82 period is extended to 1983. The shocks in question include the increase in oil prices in 1979-80, the slowdown of the world economy after 1978, the rise of interest rates starting in late 1978, and the softening of commodity prices in 1981 and 1982. Both policy variables and performance indicators are used in the analysis. Policy variables provide an indication of the policy effort made by the countries confronted by external shocks; at the same time, the choice is limited by the availability of quantitative measures and, in their absence, by the possibility of a judgmental evaluation based on available information on the policies applied. Performance indicators are derived in the framework of a methodology that permits separating external shocks and policy responses to them; they have been taken to reflect the effects of the policies applied on performance in dealing with external shocks. The results do suggest some correspondence between policy variables and performance indicators. Many intercountry differences in domestic adjustment may be explained by exchange rate and energy price policy, or less so by monetary and interest rate policy.