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The Euro Exchange Rate and Germany's Trade Surplus

出版	CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, 2019
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=43qtzQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime. The actual and counterfactual TB trajectories are similar overall. Results suggest an around 2 pp lower trade surplus during 2012-15 together with a stronger real effective exchange rate in the counterfactual. The latter shows a similar upward trend in the TB, however, and the 2012-15 gap between actual and counterfactual closes at the end of the sample.