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Alternative Futures for Russia
Simon SaradzhyanNabi Abdullaev
其他書名
The Presidential Elections and Beyond
出版European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2011
ISBN92919818859789291981885
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=4tTtFzM-iK0C&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋This paper outlines alternative scenarios for Russia's short-term future with a focus on potential outcomes of the March 2012 presidential elections. To construct these scenarios, the paper first identifies key predetermined factors in Russia's domestic and foreign policy domains. The paper then outlines and analyses key factors of uncertainty, which the authors define as events that could be "game changers", having the potential to lead to a significant change in the course of Russia's development over the coming twelve months. The paper then outlines three scenarios, based on three different interpretations of key areas of uncertainty and their interaction with predetermined factors. The paper concludes which scenarios are more probable and which are more favourable for Russia and by extension for its partners, and primarily the European Union.