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Can Anchoring Explain Biased Forecasts? Experimental Evidence

Lukas Meub

出版	SSRN, 2015
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=7AwgzwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

Biased forecasts, particularly the inadequate adjustment from current values and excessive clustering, are increasingly explained as resulting from anchoring. However, experiments presented in support of this interpretation lack economic conditions, particularly monetary incentives, feedback for learning effects and an optimal strategy of unbiased predictions. In a novel forecasting experiment, we find monetary incentives to substantially reduce and higher task complexity and risk to increase the bias. Anchors ubiquitously reduce the forecasts' variance, while individual cognitive abilities and learning effects show debiasing effects only in some conditions. Our results emphasize that biased forecasts and their specific variance can result from anchoring.