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Policy and the Study of the Future

其他書名	Given Complexity, Trends Or Processes?
出版	Rand Corporation, 1972
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=7pPsAAAAMAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋At an early stage in the study of the future and policy making, a number of important methodological choices face social scientists. One important choice concerns the relative utility of forecasting by extrapolating trends or by using process models. The former is more familiar, while the latter is appears more promising. After introduction of a few essential concepts in the formal study of political systems using process model, the effect of complexity on the analytical tractability of the system is noted. Consequent implications for the scientific study of policy are sketched.