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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions
Mr.Salvatore Dell'ErbaMr.Marcos Poplawski-RibeiroKsenia Koloskova
出版International Monetary Fund, 2014-12-05
主題Business & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Labor / General
ISBN14755591949781475559194
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=8YIKBgAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
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註釋The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.