返回Google圖書搜尋

Low Cost Carriers and Foreign Tourism Inflows

其他書名	A Cointegrated VAR Analysis for Italy
出版	European Regional Science Association, 2013
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=8r_juQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋This paper seeks to determine and quantify the impact of the rapid expansion of low cost airlines on foreign tourism trends in Italy. To this purpose we rely on a novel data set providing time series statistics on the seats on flights operated by low cost carriers between foreign destinations and each Italian airport. Cointegrated vector autoregressive models are estimated for both Italy and its main geographical areas. A single equilibrium relation is uncovered, relating in the long run the level of low cost carrier (LCC) travel supply to the dynamics of the global business cycle, of relative consumer prices and of foreign tourist expenditure. Structural impulse response analysis is used to measure the impact of an exogenous shift to low cost travel supply on foreign tourism expenditure, once a credible identification scheme is imposed. The results show that both foreign tourist expenditure and arrivals increase in Italy as a whole and in its main geographical areas after a positive shock to LCC travel supply. The initial impact of the LCC shock is essentially negligible, as most foreign travellers require some time to adjust their tourism decisions. However, dynamic responses pick up rather quickly and the new long-run equilibrium level of foreign tourism flows is reached about one year after the shock. The response of expenditure per arrival to an LCC supply shock was also considered. While the estimated response is positive at national level, it is negative for two of the four macro regions. These empirical findings suggest that focusing on arrival statistics may provide only a partial view of the impact of LCC supply policies; there may also be strong effects on per capita foreign tourist expenditure, enhancing or depressing the direct impact on arrivals.