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The B-G System of Evaluating Forecasts

Irving I. Gringorten

出版	Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Air Force Systems Command, United States Air Force, 1982
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=9G4jaSBbjTAC&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook	FULL_PUBLIC_DOMAIN

註釋

To score a forecast of an event, like the noontime temperature at a city airport, a system has been proposed that would measure the improvement of the forecast over simple climatic information. If the climatic probability of the forecast (F) is PF, and that of the observed event (V) is PV, then the assigned score (sFV) becomes sFV = -ln(1 - P1)P2 - 1, where P1 = min(PF, PV) and P2 = max(PF, PV). A test of the forecaster's skill, however, requires a large set of forecasts and corresponding verifications.