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The Next Supreme Leader
Alireza Nader
S. R. Bohandy
David E. Thaler
其他書名
Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran
出版
Rand Corporation
, 2011
主題
Biography & Autobiography / Presidents & Heads of State
History / Asia / Central Asia
Political Science / International Relations / General
Political Science / Political Process / General
Political Science / Political Process / Leadership
Political Science / World / Middle Eastern
ISBN
0833051997
9780833051998
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=9PVsY2xeNHoC&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook
SAMPLE
註釋
As the commander in chief and highest political authority in Iran, the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has played a critical role in the direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This has never been more true than during the tumultuous 2009 presidential elections, the outcome of which was determined by Khamenei's decisive support of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Only two men have held the position of Supreme Leader since the Islamic Republic of Iran was established in 1979: Khamenei and his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. As Khamenei ages and rumors of his ill health intensify, U.S. policymakers and analysts need to consider the various scenarios for succession. The eventual outcome -- what the office of the Supreme Leader looks like in Khamenei's wake -- will determine the Islamic Republic's direction. The research documented in this monograph identifies three key factors that will shape succession of the next Supreme Leader and outlines five alternative scenarios for the post-Khamenei era. For each of the factors, it provides a set of indicators that observers can use to assess the most important trends. It situates all of this within the context of the June 2009 election. Because the context in which succession would occur becomes more uncertain the further into the future one looks, the authors focus on the near term -- i.e., a succession that would take place within the next two to three years. However, the authors also speculate about the changes that are likely to ensue in the longer term if Khamenei remains Supreme Leader for the next ten years or more. In light of the 2009 election, a status quo scenario seems most likely in the near term, and an absolutist scenario is a close second. The likelihood of longer-term succession scenarios is uncertain.