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Sticking with what (barely) worked

Lars Lefgren

出版	na, 2011
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=9_AMtwAACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win - even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future success. This increased revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent with our model's predictions -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.