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Shade Trees Preserve Avian Insectivore Biodiversity on Coffee Farms in a Warming Climate
註釋Coffee is an important export in many developing countries, with a global annual trade value of $100 billion. Climate change is projected to drastically reduce the area where coffee is able to be grown. Shade trees may mitigate the effects of climate change through temperature regulation for coffee growth, temperature regulation for pest control, and increase in pest-eating bird diversity. The impact of shade on bird diversity and microclimate on coffee farms has been studied extensively in the Neotropics, but there is a dearth of research in the Paleotropics. I examined the local effects of shade on bird presence and temperature on coffee farms in Kenya and then created regional Maxent models for avian insectivores in East Africa. I adjusted current and future Bioclim layers based on mean differences in temperatures between shade and sun on coffee farms. I then projected models into the future and onto adjusted temperature layers to predict the impact of shade tree removal on climatic suitability for avian insectivores. I found that avian insectivore richness is projected to decrease significantly in the future, as is avian insectivore climatic suitability and suitable area, but shade trees on coffee farms can mediate this. Temperature is not currently a limiting factor for avian insectivores on Kenyan coffee farms, indicating that bird presence is determined by site-level factors. Future temperatures will become a regionally limiting factor for bird distribution in East Africa, but its effects can be potentially mediated through planting and maintaining shade trees on coffee farms.