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Public Debt Dynamics
Reda CherifFuad Hasanov
其他書名
The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks
出版International Monetary Fund, 2012-09-01
主題Business & Economics / InflationBusiness & Economics / Public FinanceBusiness & Economics / Exports & Imports
ISBN14755105519781475510553
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=AVcZEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.