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Ordinary Least Squares Learning and Nonlinearities in Macroeconomics

Orlando Gomes

出版	SSRN, 2010
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=D7PazwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

The paper reviews the literature on adaptive learning in macroeconomic settings where the formation of expectations is particularly relevant. Special attention will be given to simple two-period overlapping generations models with a unique fixed point perfect foresight equilibrium; in this kind of scenario, eventual long-term periodic and a-periodic cycles are exclusively the result of the process of learning. The outcome that high rates of money growth have a potentially destabilizing effect generating periodic fluctuations and chaos is emphasized. The persistence of systematic forecast errors in a scenario where agents are supposed to act rationally is relevant in this context and it will be thoroughly discussed resorting to the notions of self-fulfilling mistakes, consistent expectations equilibria and beliefs equilibria.