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What Determine China's Inflation?

出版	China Center for Economic Research, 2010
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=DMMSyAEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋The paper examines the determinants of inflation in China. The analyses of both year-on-year and month-on-month growth data confirm that excess liquidity, output gap, housing prices and stock prices positively affecting inflation. Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during the initial five months and disappear after 10 months. The effects of real interest rates and exchange rates on inflation are relatively weak. Our results suggest that output gap is as important as excess liquidity in explaining inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor asset prices given their spillovers to inflation. Currently liquidity measures are still central for controlling inflation, but further liberalization of interest rates and exchange rates are critical.