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Euro Area & US External Adjustment
Massimo Giovannini
Stefan Hohberger
Robert Kollmann
Marco Ratto
Werner Röger
Lukas Vogel
其他書名
The Role of Commodity Prices & Emerging Market Shocks
出版
Publications Office of the European Union
, 2019
ISBN
9279774433
9789279774430
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=DVVRzAEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
The trade balances of the Euro Area (EA) and of the US have improved markedly after the Global Financial Crisis. This paper quantifies the drivers of EA and US economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated (1999-2017) three-region (US, EA, rest of world) DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities. In the model, commodity prices reflect global demand and supply conditions. The paper highlights the key contribution of the post-crisis collapse in commodity prices for the EA and US trade balance reversal. Aggregate demand shocks originating in the rest of the world, including Emerging markets, too had a significant impact on EA and US trade balances.