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Forecasting Sectors, Occupational Activities and Qualifications in the Federal Republic of Germany
Manfred TessaringEuropean Centre for the Development of Vocational Training
其他書名
A Survey on Research Activities and Recent Findings
出版CEDEFOP, European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, 1997
主題Business & Economics / Economic ConditionsBusiness & Economics / Training
ISBN92828117279789282811726
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=DkwvAAAAYAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋In view of German reunification, the 1992-94 recession, and ongoing demographic, technological, organizational, and social changes, alternative projections of labor market and employment structures provide policy makers with needed information. The Institut fur Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) structural labor projection (1989) forecasted continued growth of the service sector and corresponding decline of primary and secondary sectors. An update in 1993 showed quite similar results. Labor market projections are also based on econometric models. The IAB System for Simulation and Forecasting takes into account many different types of interdependencies in the economy. Results show the level of employment will increase, whereas the labor force potential should expand less rapidly. The Industrial Forecasting Germany model finds that labor productivity increase will exceed economic growth until 2000 causing employment to fall consistently. A 1994 projection of the structure of labor demand closely follows IAB forecasts. Service occupations will expand; demand for unskilled people will fall in all occupations. Results of supply projections prepared by the German Joint Commission of Federation and Lander for Education Planning and the Promotion of Research (1994) indicate that the supply of unskilled workers will exceed demand, and demand for skilled workers will exceed supply. (The report contains information on statistical sources and classifications and 36 references.) (YLB)