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Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages
出版SSRN, 2013
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=DrDgzwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋Overconfidence has been proposed as an explanation for excess market entry by entrepreneurs and low returns in entrepreneurial activities. However, establishing that entrepreneurs are more overconfident than non-entrepreneurs requires the use of representative population samples; in addition, econometric endogeneity issues in survey data must be addressed. To overcome these methodological challenges, we use a measure of overconfidence that employs self-reports of life expectancy. These self-reports are compared to actual life spans in a large sample of the US population. We show that entrepreneurs are indeed more overconfident than non-entrepreneurs. By using fixed-effects panel regression--and thus by exploiting the longitudinal nature of our data--we provide evidence that changes in entrepreneurial status are not associated with changes in subjective life expectancy. These two findings in combination offer evidence that overconfident individuals self- select into entrepreneurship.