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Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?
Metodij Hadzi-VaskovAlejandro M. WernerRene Zamarripa
出版International Monetary Fund, 2021-06-04
主題Business & Economics / BudgetingBusiness & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Public FinanceBusiness & Economics / Economics / GeneralBusiness & Economics / International / Economics & Trade
ISBN15135734039781513573403
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=EPI_EAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
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註釋Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors.