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Diversification and Adaptation for Coping with Climate, Economic, and Technological Uncertainties
出版RAND Corporation, 2019
主題History / Latin America / MexicoMathematics / Complex AnalysisPolitical Science / Public Policy / Environmental PolicyScience / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & ClimatologyTechnology & Engineering / Environmental / Water Supply
ISBN19774027479781977402745
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=EQiPyAEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋Mexico's third-largest metropolitan area, Monterrey, faces future water security challenges as the region grows. Fondo de Agua Metropolitano de Monterrey commissioned staff from Tecnológico de Monterrey in partnership with the RAND Corporation to conduct an analysis of the long-term trends and vulnerabilities in water management in Monterrey and to help design a long-term robust water strategy. The study documented in this report uses RAND's Robust Decision Making (RDM) framework to organize the analysis and was carried out in close collaboration with Monterrey's water planning community. The results of the study show that the current capacity of Monterrey's water system is not sufficient to sustain current reliability levels in the near term or beyond. Increases in water demand will soon reduce the reliability of the system below current levels (i.e., 97 percent), and potential declines in water availability across current source basins and groundwater sources would further erode reliability. In their analysis, the researchers defined a robust, adaptive water management strategy that includes near-term investments to expand the capacities of the system and make it more efficient while monitoring future water demand and climate conditions to inform expansions in the coming years. This plan is consistent with the intuition and previous analysis of local stakeholders regarding the need to expand the supply capacities of the current system while being mindful of the significant uncertainties about the future. Finally, the analysis shows that this adaptive strategy significantly reduces the latent vulnerabilities present in the current system.