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Bioeconomic and Financial Risks of Commercial Tilapia Cage Culture in Neotropical Reservoir for Aquaculture Investors

Maicon da Rocha BrandeDavid Ferreira Lopes SantosNaor Silveira FialhoDanilo Cintra ProençaPablo Gallardo OjedaFlavia C. M. GodóiRodrigo RoubachGuilherme Wolff Bueno

出版	SSRN, 2023
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=EgUB0AEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋Financial and bioeconomic risks were evaluated for four large commercial Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) cage projects with production water volume (m 3 ) of 10 to 50 thousand m 3 (Small Volume, SV), 51 to 150 thousand m 3 (Medium Volume, MV), 151 to 300 thousand m 3 (Large Volume, LV) and > 301 thousand m 3 (Extra-Large Volume, ELV). Productivity and economic data were obtained from 232 net cages installed on a commercial farm located in the neotropical reservoir, Brazil, from 2017 to 2019. Cost and profitability analyses, bioeconomic feasibility, and risk and sensitivity analyses were performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The implementation of commercial tilapia cage farming relies mainly on the feed price. The initial investment demand is proportional to the size of the projects. However, despite the higher investments for the medium, large and extra-large tilapia farms, these projects showed the lowest financial risks. The MV, LV, and ELV projects presented a medium-low risk at 38.67% probability, whereas the SV farm presented a medium to medium-high risk at 51.17% probability. Thus, fish farms with a production volume above 51 thousand m 3 tend to be more profitable and have 35.7% probability of low financial and bioeconomic risk with a Payback period of fewer than 10 years, mainly due to the lower feed costs per mass of fish produced. This study assists investors to choose a better path toward a more viable and profitable activity.