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Demand Patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium
Mr.Igor LebrunMrs.Esther Perez Ruiz
其他書名
Can We Explain the Differences?
出版International Monetary Fund, 2014-09-12
主題Business & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Exports & Imports
ISBN14983094619781498309462
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=EqcZEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋The need to revive Euro area growth highlights the importance of the evolution of domestic and external demand in the core. This paper puts recent demand patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium into historical perspective. We find that, first, dynamics for private consumption, non-residential business investment, and exports since 2008 is dominated by conventional determinants, with no discernible structural break as a result of the crisis. Second, although country-specific factors matter in some cases, demand patterns in these countries are largely driven by common determinants. Third, developments in common fundamentals tend to dominate demand dynamics, coupled, in a few cases, with structurally different elasticities across countries. Fourth, short-term analysis suggests a role for confidence and uncertainty factors in explaining temporary deviations of these variables from long-term fundamentals.