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Assessing the Preparedness of the U.S. Health Care System Infrastructure for an Alzheimer's Treatment

出版	RAND, 2017
ISBN	08330994699780833099464
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=FlRktgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋Alzheimer's disease is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that leads to cognitive decline, dementia, and premature death. As the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease increases with age, the burden of Alzheimer's-related dementia will surge in industrialized countries with their graying populations. In the United States, for example, an estimated 5.5 million patients live with Alzheimer's-related dementia today, a number that is projected to increase to 11.6 million by 2040. Results from earlier clinical trials have led to the hypothesis that Alzheimer's dementia must be prevented rather than cured because no therapy has been able so far to reverse manifest dementia. If this new paradigm bears out in late-stage clinical trials, an important health systems challenge will arise, should one or more therapies become available: A substantial number of existing cases with early-stage disease would have to be screened, diagnosed, and then potentially treated as quickly as possible when a therapy first comes to market, in order to prevent progression to full-blown Alzheimer's dementia. This report assesses the preparedness of the U.S. health care system to handle the potential caseload. The authors used published data and expert interviews to develop a simulation model quantifying the match between health system capacity and expected demand. The report presents the results of the model and discusses their implications for patients. As many estimates in the model are subject to substantial uncertainty, the ambition of this report is not to provide an exact prediction of future capacity needs but to illustrate the magnitude of the potential problem.