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A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers
Michal AndrleMr.Roberto Garcia-SaltosGiang Ho
其他書名
The Case of Poland and the Euro Area
出版International Monetary Fund, 2014-10-17
主題Business & Economics / InflationBusiness & Economics / Foreign ExchangeBusiness & Economics / Banks & Banking
ISBN14983818129781498381819
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=GsUaEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers. We parameterize the model through an extensive calibration process, and provide a wide range of model properties and evaluation exercises. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland’s output, inflation and interest rate dynamics, particularly in recent years. Our model also has the capability for medium-term conditional forecasting and policy analysis.