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The Surface Temperature of the Earth
Trevor Underwood
出版Trevor G. Underwood, 2019-11-26
主題Science / GeneralScience / Physics / General
ISBN05786045589780578604558
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=Gw1HzAEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋This monograph comprises six papers on climate science written by Trevor Underwood, who studied theoretical physics at Cambridge University in the 1960s and returned to scientific research in 2008. This research originated from a chance encounter in a restaurant in Fort Lauderdale in December 2015 with a consulting engineer who had been involved in the 1973 construction of a sewage outfall through the coral reef off Hillsboro Inlet in Broward County, Florida. The author was kindly provided with a typewritten copy of a survey of the reef that was conducted before the trench was refilled. It noted a lack of any significant reef framework accumulation in the last 6,000 years, and attributed this to cooler water temperatures off southeast Florida during this period. The first paper reviews the evidence for this hypothesis based on paleo sea surface temperatures derived from drilling cores at five locations spanning the North Atlantic and recent marine observations at the same locations. This data was insufficient to draw firm conclusions about the die-off of the Acropora palmata but showed a surprising lack of any significant increase in sea surface temperature between 1870 and 2015. The second paper provides a detailed re-examination of global land air, sea surface, and marine air temperature data between 1880 and 2010. It identifies a divergence between land and marine surface temperatures. Papers three and four review the physics underlying the Greenhouse Effect and the methodology on which current estimates of the impact of an increase in greenhouse gases on global warming, including by the IPCC, are based. The fifth paper draws on this analysis, using physics-based relationships to calculate the change in surface temperature, instead of relying on climate model simulations. It shows an average climate sensitivity of around 0.3 °C/(W/m2), one third of the climate sensitivity estimated by IPCC 2013, corresponding to an increase in surface temperature of around 0.85 °C. It also shows that climate sensitivity is a declining function of the greenhouse gas concentration. The final paper considers the evidence for an alternative source of global warming, an increase in solar irradiance.