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Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States
Mr.Douglas Laxton
Guy Debelle
出版
International Monetary Fund
, 1996-10-01
主題
Business & Economics / Inflation
Business & Economics / Labor / General
Business & Economics / Banks & Banking
ISBN
1451853424
9781451853421
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=HFkYEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook
SAMPLE
註釋
Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.