登入選單
返回Google圖書搜尋
Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries
Mr.Alessandro CantelmoMr.Giovanni MelinaMr.Chris Papageorgiou
出版International Monetary Fund, 2019-10-11
主題Nature / Natural DisastersBusiness & Economics / Public FinanceBusiness & Economics / Environmental Economics
ISBN15135172959781513517292
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=I6u-DwAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 1.6 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be negligible, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.