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Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

Athanasios OrphanidesJohn Carroll Williams

出版	Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, 2005
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=InhaAAAAYAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

We examine the performance and robustness of monetary policy rules when the central bank and the public have imperfect knowledge of the economy and continuously update their estimates of model parameters. We find that versions of the Taylor rule calibrated to perform well under rational expectations with perfect knowledge perform very poorly when agents are learning and the central bank faces uncertainty regarding natural rates. In contrast, difference rules, in which the change in the interest rate is determined by the inflation rate and the change in the unemployment rate, perform well when knowledge is both perfect and imperfect.