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Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs
Mark KrugerMiguel Messmacher
出版International Monetary Fund, 2004-03
主題Business & Economics / GeneralBusiness & Economics / Exports & ImportsBusiness & Economics / Finance / GeneralBusiness & Economics / Public Finance
ISBN14518474169781451847413
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=Omi3AAAAIAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of foreign currency. As the need for new foreign financing increases, so does a country's financial vulnerability. The indicator has a higher correlation with default episodes than other indicators used in previous studies. In addition, the level at which it leads to a high probability of default is comparable across countries.