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Brazilian Population Dynamics in the Turn of the Xxth Century (Dinamica Populacional Brasileira Na Virada Do Seculo Xx).

Kaizo I. BeltraoAna Amélia CamaranoSolange Kanso El Ghaouri

出版	SSRN, 2004
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=P3vizwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋The paper analyses the marked changes experienced by the Brazilian population throughout the end of the XXth century. It also presents two sets of population projections for the quinquenium comprised between 2000 and 2020. They are disaggregated by sex, age groups and place of residence (rural and urban). The projection was done using the component method. The start up is the projection of each demographic component, fertility, mortality and rural-urban migration, separately. A single hypothesis was done for each component except for fertility. For it, two hypotheses were done which differentiated the two sets of projections. According to hypothesis 1, the Brazilian population would reach 217.4 million inhabitants in 2020. The second hypothesis forecasts 209.5 million persons for that year. In both scenarios, population growth rates will continue to decline throughout the projection horizon. They would get values close to 1.0% a.a. or 0.7% a.a. in 2015-2020 under respectively hypotheses 1 and 2.