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Google圖書搜尋
Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations
Dorine Boumans
Klaus Gründler
Niklas Potrafke
Fabian Ruthardt
其他書名
Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment
出版
CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute
, 2022
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=PWp7zwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of Joe Biden's election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive expectations about trade. The electoral outcome particularly affected the expectations of Western allies and increased global economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.
