登入選單

返回Google圖書搜尋

Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations

Francesco D'AcuntoUlrike MalmendierJuan OspinaMichael Weber

出版	National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=QENAygEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

We show that, to form aggregate inflation expectations, consumers rely on the price changes they face in their daily lives while grocery shopping. Specifically, the frequency and size of price changes, rather than their expenditure share, matter for individuals' inflation expectations. To document these facts, we collect novel micro data for a representative US sample that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. Our results suggest that the frequency and size of grocery-price changes to which consumers are personally exposed should be incorporated in models of expectations formation. Central banks' focus on core inflation--which excludes grocery prices--to design expectations-based policies might lead to systematic mistakes.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at "http://www.nber.org/papers/w26237"