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Predicting Re-employment
Gerard J. van den Berg
Max Kunaschk
Julia Lang
Gesine Stephan
Arne Uhlendorff
其他書名
Machine Learning Versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers
出版
IFAU, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy
, 2023
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=Qycz0AEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they expected RE6. Third, random-forest machine learning methods are trained on administrative data on the full inflow, to predict individual RE6. We compare the predictive performance of these measures and consider whether combinations improve this performance. We show that self-reported and caseworker assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm.