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Preventing Nuclear Conflict

其他書名	What Can the Behavioral Sciences Contribute?
出版	Rand, 1983
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ScfqAAAAMAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋This Note addresses one of the most crucial issues of our time, prevention of nuclear war, from the perspective of the behavioral sciences. Following an introductory section, Section II suggests an analytical framework for thinking about both the origin and the prevention of nuclear conflict. It identifies various specific ways in which nuclear war might occur, assesses them, and establishes reference points for the remaining sections. Section II also identifies critical decision making or intervention points at which deflection away from nuclear confrontation should be possible. The authors illustrate both the overall framework and particular points by recalling historical examples of confrontations between the superpowers that might have escalated to nuclear conflict. A scenario of escalation to nuclear war presents an intervention based on behavioral research principles that attempts to maintain peace. Section III evaluates the historical relationship between the behavioral sciences and international relations, with particular attention to questions of nuclear war. It includes a brief survey of descriptive studies and prescriptive measures. Although previous work in this area abounds, its very abundance raises the question of why the behavioral sciences have had so little discernible effect on international policy. They consider answers to this question and possible ways of avoiding the pitfalls that have stymied earlier efforts. In Section IV, they survey three areas of recent behavioral scientific research that seem especially relevant to preventing nuclear conflict: negotiating, interactive decision making, and interpersonal perceptions. Within each area, they survey recent findings that may be capable of producing constructive proposals for changes in policy. Section V suggests in somewhat more detail avenues along which further research and study might proceed.