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Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits
Mr.Michael Kumhof
Mr.Dirk Muir
Charles Freedman
Susanna Mursula
Mr.Douglas Laxton
出版
International Monetary Fund
, 2009-11-01
主題
Business & Economics / Banks & Banking
Business & Economics / Economics / Macroeconomics
Business & Economics / Money & Monetary Policy
ISBN
1451874014
9781451874013
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=SoQYEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook
SAMPLE
註釋
This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute shortrun multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 0.5 percentage point increase in the U.S. deficit to GDP ratio raises the U.S. tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, thereby reducing U.S. and rest of the world output by 0.3-0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively.