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Oil and the World Economy
Mr.Michael KumhofMr.Dirk Muir
其他書名
Some Possible Futures
出版International Monetary Fund, 2012-10-25
主題Business & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Investments & Securities / Commodities / EnergyBusiness & Economics / Economics / Theory
ISBN14755866479781475586640
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=TWEZEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.