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Oil Price Density Forecasts
Marco J. Lombardi
Francesco Ravazzolo
其他書名
Exploring the Linkages with Stock Markets
出版
Norges Bank
, 2012
ISBN
8275537134
9788275537131
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=T_17zQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such claims by looking at various measures of correlation. Next, we assess to what extent correlations between oil and equity prices can be exploited for asset allocation. We develop a time-varying Bayesian Dynamic Conditional Correlation model for volatilities and correlations and find that joint modelling of oil and equity prices produces more accurate point and density forecasts for oil which lead to substantial benefits in portfolio wealth.