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The Output Effects of Tax Changes
Paula Gil
其他書名
Narrative Evidence from Spain
出版
SSRN
, 2017
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=TnPpzgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986-2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after one year, this negative effect fading away at more distant horizons. We also find that the effect of changes in indirect taxes are larger and that, following a tax increase, investment reacts more than consumption. Overall, our set of estimates is consistent with negative output effects triggered by tax increases, yet the quantitative effects are subject to non-negligible uncertainty that is reflected in wide confidence bands, in line with the extant literature for other countries.
