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The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal

其他書名	A Bayesian SVAR Analysis
出版	ISEG, Department of Economics, 2009
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=VKe2vQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋In the last twenty years Portugal struggled to keep public finances under control, notably in containing primary spending. We use a new quarterly dataset covering 1979:1-2007:4, and estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to important quot;crowding-outquot; effects, by impacting negatively on private consumption and investment; and have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and the average cost of financing government debt. Positive government revenue shocks tend to have a negative impact on GDP; and lead to a fall in the price level. The evidence also shows the importance of explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model. Finally, a VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive government spending shocks lead to important quot;crowding-outquot; effects.