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Shocks, Policy Reforms and Pro-Poor Growth in Bolivia

其他書名	A Simulation Analysis
出版	SSRN, 2008
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=VM7izwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivias ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks are likely to impair Bolivias medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, the poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.