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Withholding-tax Non-compliance: the Case of Cum-ex Stock Market Transactions
註釋This paper explores withholding-tax non-compliance in the context of dividend taxation. It focuses on a specifc type of stock-market transactions around ex-dividend dates, so-called 'cum-ex' trades, which caused considerable revenue losses due to illegitimate tax refunds in Germany and other countries. The authors use a stylized model of the stock-market equilibrium to analyse the incentives of traders on the German stock market and find that cum-ex trades are only proftable for both buyer and seller in the presence of collusive tax fraud. The empirical analysis of market data for publicly traded German stocks from 2009 to 2015 confrms that transaction numbers of stocks suitable for cum-ex trades show the expected increase shortly before exdividend dates in the period before the tax refunding was reformed. In line with the collusion hypothesis, efects on stock-market prices are not found.