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China's Military and the United States-Japan Alliance in 2030
Michael D. Swaine
Mike Mochizuki
Michael L. Brown
Paul Giarra
Douglas H. Paal
Rachel Esplin Odell
Raymond Lu
Oliver Palmer
Ren Xu
出版
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
, 2013
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ZXipnQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
The emergence of the People's Republic of China as an increasingly significant military power in the Western Pacific presents major implications for Japan, the U.S.-Japan alliance, and regional security. Most notably, China's acquisition of so-called antiaccess/area denial-type capabilities -- centered on ballistic and cruise missiles, increasingly capable air forces, submarines and surface combatants, long-range radars and sophisticated C4ISR networks, and other types of offshore weapons systems -- combined with its growing military and paramilitary presence along the East Asian littoral and beyond, is providing Beijing with a greater capacity to influence the security environment in this vital region of the world. In fact, China's increasing influence abroad is converging with rising levels of nationalism at home to produce more strident domestic arguments in favor of using this growing military capacity to advance Chinese security interests overseas. The aim of this report is to sharpen the level of analysis and stimulate debate in both Tokyo and Washington over the future of the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Policymakers and publics in all three countries are presented with several inconvenient truths about the nature and extent of China's challenge to this alliance and the likely requirements for effectively addressing it. This analysis offers a useful template for further quantitative and qualitative assessment and strategic formulation. In so doing, it will hopefully provide the basis for more in-depth examination of the larger strategic and policy implications of the rapidly changing and enormously important Sino-Japanese-U.S. security dynamic.