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Quantifying Australia's "three Speed" Boom

出版	Business School, Economics, University of Western Australia, 2013
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ZZeGnQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋This paper examines Australia's terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance. The objective is to address the conjecture that a 'secondary services boom' is primarily responsible for the widespread nature of the associated gains in employment. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical analysis are used to examine the sectoral impacts on employment and income with the former confirming a services expansion of sufficient scale to tighten the labour market but indicating some (unobserved) “deindustrialisation”. The empirical analysis approaches the same links using vector autoregressions estimated from preboom Australian data (1989 through 2002) and out of sample simulations over the subsequent boom period. The secondary services boom appears clearly in both income and employment, thought the results on manufacturing are ambiguous, with observed performance better than predicted on the estimated VARs, again suggesting that the recent boom accompanied changes in industrial structure and underlying behavioural parameters that have favoured surviving manufacturing firms.