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Potential Growth in Colombia
Mr.Sergi Lanau
Mr.Jorge Roldos
Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
出版
International Monetary Fund
, 2017-11-13
主題
Business & Economics / Economics / Macroeconomics
Business & Economics / Infrastructure
Business & Economics / Production & Operations Management
ISBN
1484328817
9781484328811
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ZzNBDwAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook
SAMPLE
註釋
This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.