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국제사회의 취약국 개발협력 성과와 과제 (Foreign Aid to Fragile States

Yul KwonJisun JeongYoon Sun HurJihei SongAila YooMi Lim Kim

其他書名	An Analysis and Implications for Korea).
出版	SSRN, 2020
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=aSTbzwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋English Abstract: The international community has recently suffered from conflicts, disasters, and terrorism, from which fragile states suffer the most. With the increasing number of refugees and migrants from fragile states emerging as a major regional and global problem, the international society has egun to perceive that fragile states could pose a threat to international security. Furthermore, ost of the fragile states face not only poverty but also human rights and security- related issues that prompt global concerns over fragile states hindering the international society from achieving development goals. Therefore, considering the Sustainable Development Goals SDGs) adopted at the UN General Assembly in 2015, the international community began romoting strategic plans to resolve peace and human rights-related issues under SDG 6 “peace, justice, and strong institutions.” Emphasized at the World Humanitarian Summit 2016, the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus(HDP Nexus) suggests new directions to support fragile states by connecting humanitarian aid, development, and peacebuilding practices and funding. As of 2017, aid to fragile states continues to increase as the importance of fragile states gains more recognition as a part of inter-national development cooperation. However, the development outcomes of such engagements remain unclear and insufficient, while more than 40% of the world's poorest still live in conflict- affected or fragile states. In this regard, the nternational society has taken efforts to enhance development effectiveness to address the negative impacts of fragility in achieving the SDGs, international security, and peacebuilding. The world overhauls related policies and devises strategic plans that go beyond humanitarian purposes and affect the achievement of sustainable development, conflict prevention, and peacebuilding to provide effective aid for fragile states. The study aims to suggest policy suggestions to improve the effectiveness of Korea's development cooperation in fragile states. To achieve this goal, the study first presents the statistical trends of development cooperation towards fragile states, introducing contextual backgrounds and international dialogues regarding aid to fragile states. Secondly, the research compares and analyzes the current status, policies, and characteristics of aid to fragile states in major case study donors. Thirdly, the study constructs empirical models to analyze the impact of aid to fragile states using indicators for development, peace and economic growth. The study attempts to disaggregate and measure the impacts of aid by sector and modality. This is followed by an analysis of Korea's development cooperation to fragile states. Chapter 2 outlines an analysis of trends in development cooperation in fragile states and discussions on the effectiveness of aid, as well as major issues at the international level. The international community is increasingly becoming aware of the importance of enhancing aid effectiveness and securing peace in fragile states with the adoption of the SDGs. Therefore, the UN and the World Bank have suggested new ways of working by linking peacebuilding activities to existing humanitarian aid and development cooperation projects, known as the HDP nexus. There is a strong assumption that the HDP nexus will substantially contribute to the enhancement of development effectiveness in fragile states. The study emphasizes how the HDP nexus is based on the perception that development assistance to fragile states should be pursued in the multi-year planning to support building resilience to future crises and minimize the impact of current risks, and to respond to fundamental fragilities. Chapter 3 illustrates the current status, policies, and characteristics of development cooperation to fragile states in major donor countries, such as Germany, Australia, Denmark, and Japan, which have significant implications for the stablishment of Korea's policies considering the volume and implementation tools of aid to fragile states. Germany is the third largest donor to fragile states following the United States and the United Kingdom, and it promotes effective development cooperation plans through wholeof- government approaches by operating intergovernmental networks, guidelines of project planning, and performance management in severe conflict areas. Using the Peace and Conflict Assessment(PCA) tool, fragility is systematically considered during every stage of the project cycle. In the Denmark case, it emphasizes “ex-ante common analysis on cause of conflict” should precede project implementation in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Also, the Danish government is responding to the development needs of fragile states quickly and flexibly by operating a Peace and Stabilization Fund(PSF). Australia concentrates its development aid to support Small Island Developing Countries(SIDS) with high economic, environmental, and social fragility over conflict-prone ones. Due to the Australian government's particular concerns over the negative impacts on its national security, it supports fragile states with an aim to manage immigration and the spread of infectious disease. Japan responds to the development needs of fragile states with a comprehensive approach to achieving human security and provides a high proportion of concessional loan to build large-scale infrastructures. To support the fragile state more effectively, the Japanese government established a guideline to build the capacity of governments and local communities simultaneously. Chapter 4 demonstrates an empirical analysis of the impact of foreign aid to fragile states on indicators for development, peace, and economic growth. Because the existing literature analyzes the impact of overall aid on restricted indicators including economic growth, it is limited when it comes to showing the causal relationship between aid to fragile states and development. To overcome this limitation of the existing literature, the study estimates the causal relationship between development cooperation to fragile states and various indicators for development, peace, and economic growth. Furthermore, the study focuses on showing the linkages between aid to fragile states and development by type of aid, and sectoral aid allocation by adding post-conflict effects. The analysis shows that project aid to fragile states has a positive impact on economic growth and improvements in the Water Supply and Sanitation sector under conflict situations. In contrast, program aid and technical assistance have negative or no impacts on development. Under post-conflict situations, the analysis finds, budget support has a negative influence on economic growth, while technical assistance or food aid have positive impacts. The results support the existing literature that budget support could negatively affect economic development due to weak governance. Chapter 5 identifies the current status and characteristics of Korea's aid to fragile states and draw up some policy implications for future improvement in development effectiveness in fragile and conflict-affected situations based upon earlier analyses. Korea lacks a systematic approach to consider each fragile state's characteristics when it provides aid to fragile states. Although the majority of Korea's top partner countries are fragile states and account for about half of its total ODA, only a small amount of aid is provided to conflict-affected countries, such as Syria and Iraq, except Afghanistan. While Korea established its Assistance Strategy for Fragile States in 2017, it has yet to build an effective system to consult with relevant ministries other than those in charge of development cooperation. Furthermore, in the project cycle, Korea struggles with difficulties in project implementation and results management in fragile states due to weak fragility analysis. In order to tackle these issues, Korea should strengthen cooperation with the international community, including other donors and international organizations, establish robust coordination mechanisms between relevant ministries using the whole-of-government approach, and build capacity to provide effective aid to fragile states based upon comprehensive fragility analysis.