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Analysis of Current Developments in Global Carbon Markets

Thomas DayCarsten WarneckeHarry FearnehoughLambert SchneiderSean Healy

其他書名	Final Report
出版	Umweltbundesamt, 2020
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ai1JzgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋Analysis of current developments in global carbon marketsThe major aim of this research project was to provide insights on the state of current carbon market activities and options for supporting the continuation of new and existing mitigation activities in the pre-2020 period. In an analysis of CDM project vulnerability for major project types in key countries, we assessed the risk that projects would cease continuation of their GHG abatement without significant CER revenues. In this context, we conducted a bottom up assessment of CER supply potential in the 2013-2020 period. The total CER supply potential for the 2013-2020 period is considerable, at 4.6 billion CERs, well in excess of current levels of issuance and demand. Just 4% of the maximum CER supply potential, representing 171 million CERs, comes from project types that were classified from the analysis as having typically high vulnerability. Building further onthis quantitative analysis, we assessed the marginal cost of CER supply, and how the CER supply curve would be affected by different scenarios for CER eligibility. In our Base Case, up to 3.8 billion new CERs could supply the market at prices below €1 perunit. We find evidence that robust eligibility restrictions on the supply of CERs from existing CDM projects are essential for any new sources ofdemand to support GHG emission abatement that would not have occurred otherwise. We assessed the impact of credit purchase facilities for supporting vulnerable projects, and the potential for similar efforts to upscale these impacts.