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Are Currency Crises Predictable?
Mr.Ilan GoldfajnMr.Rodrigo O. Valdes
出版International Monetary Fund, 1997-12-01
主題Business & Economics / Foreign ExchangeBusiness & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Finance / Financial Risk Management
ISBN14518576329781451857634
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=cF0YEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
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註釋This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.